Is multilateralism irreversibly a thing of the past? Have we entered a genuinely new age of empires where all rules result from bilateral deals that mirror the empires’ relative geopolitical and geoeconomic power? While this picture reflects the current state of global affairs, our conference questions the irreversibility of the underlying trends. New imperial power struggles must not be the lasting substitute for the hegemonial retreat of the US – instead, a new multilateral order is a possible equilibrium that can emerge from these struggles. By focusing on the notion of resilience, we want to discuss why the traditional multilateral order experienced heavy blows over the past two decades – and how this order can rebound and assume a new, more sustainable shape.
We begin by examining the history of multilateralism and its perennial fragility, searching for the ideas, institutions, and interests which were “resilience destroyers” of earlier multilateral orders. This helps to diagnose the transition into today’s new mercantilist order. Subsequently we examine potential “resilience enhancers” which can contribute to a future rebound of the multilateral order. These enhancers include different possible levels of multilateral integration in the flows of globalization, i.e., trade, investment, financial markets, and technologies, but also varieties of new frameworks for the reset of international institutions.
The Social Market Economy as the motivation behind the Ludwig Erhard Forum’s activities is built on rules-based reasoning (“Ordnungspolitik”) where the rules leading to “prosperity for all” should apply equally to everyone – nationally and internationally. Exploring a geoeconomic future built on new, but nevertheless generally applicable rules is crucial for the future of this liberal tradition of political economy.