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Working Papers

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Finance

Who Can Tell Which Banks Will Fail?

The authors use the German Crisis of 1931, one of the largest bank runs in financial history, to study how depositors behave in the absence of deposit insurance

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Macroeconomics

Micro Risks and Pareto Improving Policies

Mark A. Aguiar Manuel AmadorCristina Arellano
Finance

Can a Machine Correct Option Pricing Models?

Caio AlmeidaJianqing FanGustavo FreireFrancesca Tang
Finance

Nonparametric Option Pricing with Generalized Entropic Estimators

Caio AlmeidaGustavo FreireRafael AzevedoKym Ardison
Finance

Maturity Composition and the Demand for Government Debt

Jason AllenJakub KastlMilena Wittwer
Finance

Financial Inclusion Across the United States

Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises, Revisited

Mark A. AguiarSatyajit ChatterjeeHarold ColeZachary Stangebye
Monetary Economics

Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Policy with Distorting Taxes

Finance

Falling Rates and Rising Superstars

Thomas KroenErnest LiuAtif MianAmir Sufi
Monetary Economics

Interactions between Monetary and Fiscal Policy: Yesterday, Today, and Tomorrow

Monetary Economics

What explains the decline in r*? Rising income inequality versus demographic shifts

Atif MianLudwig StraubAmir Sufi

Dynamical Structure and Spectral Properties of Input-Output Networks

Ernest LiuAleh Tsyvinski
Finance

Costs of Financing US Federal Debt: 1791-1933

George HallJonathan PayneThomas J. SargentBálint Szőke
Finance

Market Power in Small Business Lending: A Two Dimensional Bunching Approach

Natalie CoxErnest LiuDaniel Morrison
Monetary Economics

Debt as Safe Asset

Markus BrunnermeierSebastian MerkelYuliy Sannikov

Credit Default Swaps as Sovereign Debt Collateral

A Goldilocks Theory of Fiscal Policy

Atif MianLudwig StraubAmir Sufi

Dividend Taxes and the Allocation of Capital

Charles BoisselAdrien Matray
Finance

Constrained Polynomial Likelihood

Caio AlmeidaPaul Schneider
Finance

The Data Privacy Paradox and Digital Demand

Long ChenYadong HuangShumiao OuyangWei Xiong

Issuance Overpricing of China’s Corporate Debt Securities

Yi DingWei XiongJinfan Zhang