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Victor Degorce on Public credit and the financial cycle

Victor Degorce
March 19, 2024
12:20 pm - 1:15 pm
Student Research Workshop

More from this series
Room 108

Credit granted by state-led institutions (i.e. public credit) plays a major role in the financial cycle. By drawing on central banks’ archives and statistical reports for thirteen major economies over the post-war period, I build the first dataset on total state loans to firms and households. The data is quarterly and covers the 1950-2023 period. I put forward three main findings. First, public credit accounts for a large share of total credit (22% across my sample). Second, public credit is immune to the Global Financial Cycle. Following a US monetary policy tightening, private credit contracts while public credit is not affected. Finally, in financially liberalized economies, public credit is countercyclical: it contracts during private booms and expands during busts. Consequently, the decline in total credit and output during a bust is lower when the ex-ante share of public credit in total credit is higher.